Ajit Pawar's Untimely Death May Give Modi What He Couldn't Win: Sharad Pawar

The real question is not whether Ajit Dada’s faction returns to Sharad Pawar. It is whether Sharad Pawar goes to where Ajit Pawar already was.

After Ajit Pawar’s sudden death, many people might expect the 41 MLAs who joined him in the Mahayuti to return to Sharad Pawar. They wonder if the Nationalist Congress Party will reunite under Sharad Pawar and if this event will make the Maha Vikas Aghadi stronger.

But this common view misses the point. It’s not the right question to ask.

A more interesting and likely outcome is the opposite: Sharad Pawar could join the NDA. The reunion would happen in government, not in opposition. With Ajit Pawar gone, the main barrier stopping Modi from bringing Maharashtra’s last big non-BJP power centre into his fold is gone.

This isn’t just BJP wishful thinking. It’s based on a cold political logic. If you know Sharad Pawar’s long career, this move would fit his usual approach.

The Door That Never Closed

Here’s an important but overlooked fact: After the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Prime Minister Modi invited Sharad Pawar to join the NDA. Sharad Pawar said no, but the offer still stands.

Back then, joining would have meant giving in to his nephew, the one who split the party, took its name and symbol, and joined the BJP. For Sharad Pawar, who takes pride in his legacy, this was too much. The hurt was recent and very public.

Ajit Pawar was the obstacle. Not ideology. Not policy. Not even the BJP itself. Ajit Dada.

Now, that obstacle is gone.

What’s Left of NCP(SP)

Let’s look at where Sharad Pawar’s group stands now.

In the latest Pune Municipal Corporation elections, NCP(SP) won only three seats, while the BJP took 119. In Pimpri-Chinchwad, Sharad Pawar’s group didn’t win any seats. Across Maharashtra’s municipal councils, his party got just 256 out of 6,851 seats. In the 2024 assembly elections, a party that once ruled Maharashtra was left with very little.

NCP(SP) isn’t just declining; it has already declined. All that’s left is the name, a few lawmakers, and the patriarch’s remaining reputation.

Sharad Pawar is 85. His Rajya Sabha term ends in April 2026, and he suggested last year he might not run again. He wants to leave politics with his legacy secure.

But what does his legacy look like now? His party is split by his nephew, its presence in his hometown is tiny, the opposition alliance lost badly in Maharashtra, and his family is divided.

This isn’t the kind of exit someone like Sharad Pawar would want.

The Merger That Already Began

Most observers have noted this: the two NCP factions have already come together at the local level.

For the Zilla Parishad elections scheduled for 5 February, both factions are contesting together on the “clock” symbol. This is not a one-off arrangement. NCP leader Sunil Tatkare publicly stated that merger discussions would happen “if circumstances arise.” Ajit Pawar himself acknowledged in a recent interview that the bitterness between the factions had “diminished.”

The two sides were already coming back together in practice. Ajit Pawar’s death speeds up this process.

But the key question is: who or what will set the terms for this reunification?

Let’s assume that Ajit Dada’s group, now without a leader, would return to Sharad Pawar and strengthen the MVA. But this would mean 41 MLAs, who now have government positions and protection, would willingly move to the opposition.

Why would they choose to do that?

Praful Patel, a Rajya Sabha MP and NCP’s National Working President, has served as a Union Cabinet Minister, is currently on the board of FIFA, and knows the value of power. Chhagan Bhujbal is a current state Cabinet Minister. They joined Ajit Pawar to stay in power and avoid investigations. Their incentives are the same; the only change is their leader.

Four Scenarios, One Logic

There are four possible scenarios for the NCP after Ajit Pawar’s death.

The first scenario is that Ajit Pawar’s group breaks up, with MLAs moving either to the BJP or to Sharad Pawar. This could happen, but it’s unlikely since it helps no one.

The second scenario is that Sunetra Pawar or Parth Pawar takes over and stays in the Mahayuti. This could work, but it’s unstable. Neither has Ajit Dada’s influence or control, so the group would be weaker and at risk of losing members.

The third scenario is that Ajit Pawar’s group merges with Sharad Pawar’s and rejoins the MVA. But it would mean 41 MLAs giving up power and protection, Praful Patel leaving the government, and Sunetra Pawar accepting Sharad Pawar’s leadership, even after being called an “outsider” by him in 2024. The emotional and practical hurdles are significant.

The fourth scenario is that Sharad Pawar joins the NDA, bringing the family together within the ruling alliance.

The last option is the easiest. No one needs to switch sides or give up power. The family and party come back together, and Sharad Pawar can leave politics as the person who reunited his family, not as someone who lost everything.

The Patriarch’s Calculus

Let’s look at it from his point of view.

He’s ancient. His party is in pieces. His nephew, after a very public fight, has died. His daughter, Supriya, though a three-term MP, has no way to gain executive power right now. The opposition alliance he helped create has lost badly in Maharashtra.

If he joins the NDA, he stands to gain several things.

First, he can protect his legacy. The NCP, which he founded, would remain united rather than be absorbed by the BJP or fade away in opposition.

Second, he can reunite his family. He would be seen as the leader who brought everyone back together, not the one who lost his party to his nephew.

Third, Supriya Sule could have a future in government, possibly as a Union minister. Sharad Pawar himself might get a governor’s post if he wants it. The BJP often offers such roles to leaders who join it.

Fourth, the Pawar family’s absolute power over sugar cooperatives, district banks, and educational trusts in western Maharashtra depends on state support. Staying in opposition would slowly weaken these institutions and vote banks.

Fifth, if he wants to stay in parliament, the BJP-led Mahayuti can guarantee him a Rajya Sabha seat in April.

What would he lose? His image as a secular, anti-BJP leader, his place in the INDIA bloc, and his record of sticking to one ideology.

But Sharad Pawar has always been practical, not ideological. He left Congress in 1999 over the “foreign origin” issue, but really because he saw no chance to become Prime Minister there. He’s worked with the BJP before, supporting the Fadnavis government in 2014. He’s always gone where the power is.

What Modi Wins

For Modi and Shah, this move would be a significant win.

If a founding member and top strategist of the INDIA bloc joins the NDA, it would seriously hurt the opposition’s morale across the country. It would show that even experienced leaders now accept the new political reality.

In Maharashtra, this would remove the last big opposition group. The MVA would be left with just Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), both weaker and lacking a strong, credible leader. The NDA would likely win most of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats in 2029.

It would also give the BJP something it has long wanted: influence over cooperatives in western Maharashtra. The sugar belt, key to Maratha politics, would come under NDA control. This isn’t just about elections; it’s about running the economic institutions that shape rural Maharashtra.

The Shinde Problem, Solved

There’s another winner in this situation that many have missed: the Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis.

Ajit Pawar’s death has changed the balance within the Mahayuti. With the NCP weaker, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is now stronger. Shinde’s 57 MLAs are the clear second force in the coalition. Without Ajit Dada to balance things, Shinde can demand more ministerial posts, the BMC mayor’s job, and a bigger share of power.

Fadnavis now has a familiar challenge: handling a demanding ally without a third partner to balance things out.

If Sharad Pawar joins the NDA and the two NCP factions reunify within the Mahayuti, Fadnavis gains a restored counterweight to Shinde. A unified NCP under Sharad Pawar’s moral authority, with 41-plus MLAs, experienced administrators from the NCP fold, and the cooperative network of western Maharashtra, would be a far more substantial partner than the leaderless rump that exists today.

This isn’t just about numbers; it’s about leverage. In coalition politics of more than two partners, the Chief Minister’s power comes from balancing partners against each other. With Ajit Pawar gone and the NCP weaker, Fadnavis loses that edge. If Sharad Pawar joins, he gets it back.

It’s ironic: Sharad Pawar, Fadnavis’s most formidable rival for years, could now become his best ally in keeping Shinde’s ambitions in check.

Supriya Will Follow

Supriya Sule’s political identity is based on opposing the BJP. She’s been the main face of NCP(SP) ’s resistance to the Mahayuti. For the last three years, her whole image has been about standing against what her cousin Ajit Pawar did.

But above all, Supriya Sule is Sharad Pawar’s daughter. The Pawar family has always put family before ideology. If her father decides to switch sides, she will follow. This isn’t a weakness; it’s just how political families work.

Her WhatsApp message after hearing of Ajit Pawar’s death was a single word: “Devasted” (sic). The grief was genuine. Whatever their political differences, the family bond remains. Supriya Sule and Sunetra Pawar travelled together to Baramati today. The door to reconciliation is not just open; the family is already walking through it.

Realistically, what other choice does she have? If she leaves her father, she’d be leading a weakened NCP(SP) alone, without the main Pawar name, and stuck in opposition. She’d see her father’s legacy break apart while she stands on principle. Supriya Sule is too smart to choose irrelevance over staying in the game.

If Sharad Pawar joins the NDA, so will Supriya Sule. A Union ministry and a future in government are better than always losing elections. Unlike Ajit Pawar, she would join the ruling alliance with her father’s support.

The Next Two Weeks

If this happens, here’s how it could go.

The funeral is tomorrow, and Modi and Shah are expected to attend. During the mourning period, the family will appear united in public. Sharad Pawar and Sunetra Pawar have already been seen together. Images of family unity will fill the news.

In the next few days, private talks will take place. The BJP will show it’s open to a respectful deal; maybe a ministerial post for Sunetra Pawar to honour Ajit Dada, a role for Parth to involve the next generation, a governor’s post for Sharad Pawar, or a Union Cabinet spot for Supriya Sule.

The official merger of the two NCP groups will be presented as a family choice, not just a political one. “For the sake of unity, for Maharashtra’s development, we are putting the past behind us.” The united party will stay in the Mahayuti.

Sharad Pawar would retire as the leader who brought his family back together. Supriya Sule would join the Union Cabinet. The NCP would remain a key partner in the NDA, keeping its cooperative base and securing its future.

The INDIA bloc would lose one of its founders. The MVA would lose its top strategist. Maharashtra would, in effect, become a one-coalition state.

The Case Against

Let’s consider the other side.

Sharad Pawar has a strong sense of pride. Joining the BJP at 85, after years as a secular leader, would risk his reputation. Critics would call him a sellout, his supporters would be let down, and the national opposition would feel betrayed.

He’s also made promises to the INDIA bloc. Leaving leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee would destroy relationships built over the years.

There’s also the issue of ideology. Sharad Pawar’s career has been about being different from the BJP’s Hindutva politics. Joining them now would mean explaining away years of his own positions.

These are real challenges, and I don’t ignore them.

But Sharad Pawar has changed course before. He left Congress, teamed up with the Shiv Sena, supported the BJP from outside, broke with them, and then rejoined the opposition. His political survival has always been about being flexible, not consistent.

At 85, with his party in pieces and his nephew gone, being flexible might be the most brilliant move again.

The Real Question

The first scenario faces significant hurdles: 41 MLAs would have to give up power, and leaders like Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal would need to leave the power or leave the party and join the BJP. Sunetra Pawar would have to accept leadership from someone who once called her an outsider.

The second scenario’s obstacles are mostly psychological: Sharad Pawar’s pride, his public stance on ideology, and his promises to the INDIA bloc.

Pride can be handled with the right offers. Ideology has never been Sharad Pawar’s primary motivation. And honestly, the INDIA bloc doesn’t have much to offer him now.

If I were advising Devendra Fadnavis, I’d say now is the time to act. The opportunity is here: Sharad Pawar is grieving, his family is coming together, and he won’t accept fading into irrelevance. For Fadnavis, bringing a united NCP into the Mahayuti would solve his Shinde problem before it gets out of hand.

Ajit Pawar’s death is tragic. But in politics, tragedy often brings opportunity. Here, the real chance isn’t for the opposition to come together; it’s for Modi to finish what he started by bringing Maharashtra’s last independent power centre into the NDA.

Pay close attention over the next two weeks. The signs will be subtle; a meeting here, a statement there, maybe a photo of reconciliation. Then, quietly, there will be an announcement that won’t surprise anyone who’s been watching closely.

Sharad Pawar has always gone after power. Right now, the power is with Modi. The only real obstacle was Ajit Pawar, and now, that’s gone.