The BJP Doesn't Win; Others Lose

The idea of a "Modi wave" is a modern myth. What we are really seeing is the Opposition failing to get its numbers right, not the BJP dominating.

Most people view Indian politics as follows: the BJP is an unstoppable election machine, Narendra Modi has a strong connection with voters, and the Opposition is struggling against a giant.

This is absolutely wrong.

The BJP's national vote share was 36.5% in 2024, 37.4% in 2019, and 31.2% in 2014. After ten years of "Modi magic," the party has only gained five percentage points. It has never gone above 38%. Two-thirds of Indian voters have never chosen the BJP.

What people call BJP dominance is really something else. It is the result of a divided Opposition and the way the first-past-the-post system works. The BJP does not win elections; others lose them.

Minority Rule by Design

India's voting system rewards parties that can concentrate their support, not those with a majority. In a race with many parties, 35% of the vote can defeat a 65% split. The BJP understands this, but the Opposition does not, or maybe they understand it but can’t do anything about it.

Look at the December 2024 data from the Election Commission of India. One-third of Lok Sabha members, or 178 MPs, won with 30% or less of the votes in their areas. Of these, 57 were from the BJP. The average winner got just 50.58% of the vote, down from 52.65% in 2019. Only six MPs across the country won with more than half the total votes.

This is not a clear mandate. The system is set up for plurality, and the party that best divides its opponents takes advantage of it.

The Haryana Illusion

The October 2024 Haryana assembly election clearly demonstrated how the first-past-the-post system can distort electoral outcomes.

The final vote share was BJP 39.94% and Congress 39.09%, a difference of only 0.85 percentage points, less than 1%.

Ultimately, the BJP won 48 seats, and the Congress won 37, a difference of 11 seats.

The BJP won a "historic third consecutive term" with almost the same vote share as Congress. The difference in the popular vote was tiny. Still, the headlines called it a "landslide" and said "Congress routed." Exit polls had predicted a Congress win, but the real vote share showed the race was extremely close.

What happened was that Congress's votes were not spread out efficiently. They got large numbers in the seats they won, while the BJP won more seats with smaller margins. The same number of voters produced very different outcomes simply because of where they lived.

This is not about the BJP being strong. It is about Congress being inefficient.

The Maharashtra Magic

The November 2024 Maharashtra assembly election is the clearest example of this pattern.

In the May 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Maha Vikas Aghadi won 30 out of 48 seats, while the Mahayuti won 17. Their vote shares were almost the same: MVA had 43.92%, and Mahayuti had 43.34%.

Six months later, in the assembly election, the Mahayuti won 235 out of 288 seats, while the MVA dropped to just 46.

What changed? It was not public opinion. The same voters took part in both elections in the same year. What changed was the efficiency with which votes were distributed, the quality of candidate selection, and that Mahayuti managed to consolidate its votes, whereas the MVA's votes were scattered.

The BJP alone secured 26.77% of the vote and won 132 seats. The Congress secured 12.42% of the vote and won 16 seats. By percentage-point vote share, this is not about popularity. It is about smart political strategy. This is political engineering.

The Delhi Confirmation

The February 2025 Delhi election exhibited the same pattern.

The vote share was 45.76% for the BJP and 43.55% for the AAP, a difference of 2.21 percentage points.

The BJP won 48 seats, and AAP won 22, a difference of 26 seats.

A difference of just two percentage points in vote share led to a 26-seat swing. The BJP returned to power after 27 years, not because Delhi strongly rejected AAP, but because AAP's votes, still over 43%, were distributed in a way that allowed the BJP to win a large majority.

If you add Congress's 6.36% vote share, the combined Opposition vote was almost 50%, which is higher than the BJP's. Still, the BJP won 48 out of 70 seats.

The so-called wave was just a small ripple. The big change people saw was really just a trick of the numbers.

The Ceiling Nobody Discusses

There is one fact that should worry BJP strategists more than the Opposition: the party's vote share has stopped growing.

2014: 31.2%. 2019: 37.4%. 2024: 36.5%.

The 2019 election happened after the Pulwama and Balakot attacks, when Modi was at his most popular. The BJP got 37% then. Five years later, even with a major third-term campaign and talk of "400 paar," the number declined.

Right now, it seems the BJP has reached its limit. Approximately 36%-38% of Indian voters support the party; the remainder do not. The real question is whether those other voters will stay divided or come together.

What This Means

These facts are significant and affect both sides.

For the BJP, the lesson is that its position is fragile. A 36% vote share could yield 240 seats, but small changes could reduce that to 180. The party's dominance stems from the Opposition's division, not from its invincibility. If the INDIA bloc had worked together better in 2024, the BJP would not have won more than 200 seats.

For the Opposition, the lesson is even clearer: they can win. Two-thirds of India does not love the BJP. The party appears preferable to a divided alternative. Coming together is not about ideals; it is about numbers. The same voters who gave the BJP a majority could defeat it if they do not have to split their votes.

The "Modi wave" was never real. It was just a divided Opposition struggling to stay afloat.

The Real Contest

Raj Thackeray once told me, "Opposition never wins, ruling party always loses."

He was articulating the oldest truth in electoral politics. Elections are referendums on incumbents. Governments bleed support over time. The opposition's job is simply to be there when the blood flows.

By this logic, the BJP should be losing. Its vote share has flatlined. Anti-incumbency at multiple levels is evident as I write this on the eve of the 77th Republic Day. The 2024 Lok Sabha election result, in which the party lost 63 seats, was a warning.

But the Opposition cannot collect what the BJP is losing. The votes are there. They are simply scattered across too many parties, too many candidates, too many egos. The ruling party is bleeding. The Opposition is holding a sieve.

The question for 2029 is not whether India loves Modi. The question is whether the Opposition can count.